Meeting report: 35th International Conference on Antiviral Research in Seattle, Washington, USA - March 21-25, 2022.

The 35th International Conference on Antiviral Research (ICAR), sponsored by the International Society for Antiviral Research (ISAR), was held in Seattle, Washington, USA, on March 21-25, 2022 and concurrently through an interactive remote meeting platform. This report gives an overview of the conference on behalf of the society. It provides a general review of the meeting and awardees, summarizing the presentations and their main conclusions from the perspective of researchers active in many different areas of antiviral research and development. Through ICAR, leaders in the field of antiviral research were able to showcase their efforts, as participants learned about key advances in the field. The impact of these efforts was exemplified by many presentations on SARS-CoV-2 demonstrating the remarkable response to the ongoing pandemic, as well as future pandemic preparedness, by members of the antiviral research community. As we address ongoing outbreaks and seek to mitigate those in the future, this meeting continues to support outstanding opportunities for the exchange of knowledge and expertise while fostering cross-disciplinary collaborations in therapeutic and vaccine development. The 36th ICAR will be held in Lyon, France, March 13-17, 2023.

Meeting report: 34th international conference on antiviral research.

As a result of the multiple gathering and travels restrictions during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, the annual meeting of the International Society for Antiviral Research (ISAR), the International Conference on Antiviral Research (ICAR), could not be held in person in 2021. Nonetheless, ISAR successfully organized a remote conference, retaining the most critical aspects of all ICARs, a collegiate gathering of researchers in academia, industry, government and non-governmental institutions working to develop, identify, and evaluate effective antiviral therapy for the benefit of all human beings. This article highlights the 2021 remote meeting, which presented the advances and objectives of antiviral and vaccine discovery, research, and development. The meeting resulted in a dynamic and effective exchange of ideas and information, positively impacting the prompt progress towards new and effective prophylaxis and therapeutics.

Changes in SARS-CoV-2 viral load and mortality during the initial wave of the pandemic in New York City.

Public health interventions such as social distancing and mask wearing decrease the incidence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, but it is unclear whether they decrease the viral load of infected patients and whether changes in viral load impact mortality from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We evaluated 6923 patients with COVID-19 at six New York City hospitals from March 15-May 14, 2020, corresponding with the implementation of public health interventions in March. We assessed changes in cycle threshold (CT) values from reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction tests and in-hospital mortality and modeled the impact of viral load on mortality. Mean CT values increased between March and May, with the proportion of patients with high viral load decreasing from 47.7% to 7.8%. In-hospital mortality increased from 14.9% in March to 28.4% in early April, and then decreased to 8.7% by May. Patients with high viral loads had increased mortality compared to those with low viral loads (adjusted odds ratio 2.34). If viral load had not declined, an estimated 69 additional deaths would have occurred (5.8% higher mortality). SARS-CoV-2 viral load steadily declined among hospitalized patients in the setting of public health interventions, and this correlated with decreases in mortality.

Role of high-dose exposure in transmission hot zones as a driver of SARS-CoV-2 dynamics.

Epidemiological data about SARS-CoV-2 spread indicate that the virus is not transmitted uniformly in the population. The transmission tends to be more effective in select settings that involve exposure to relatively high viral dose, such as in crowded indoor settings, assisted living facilities, prisons or food processing plants. To explore the effect on infection dynamics, we describe a new mathematical model where transmission can occur (i) in the community at large, characterized by low-dose exposure and mostly mild disease, and (ii) in so-called transmission hot zones, characterized by high-dose exposure that can be associated with more severe disease. The model yields different types of epidemiological dynamics, depending on the relative importance of hot zone and community transmission. Interesting dynamics occur if the rate of virus release/deposition from severely infected people is larger than that of mildly infected individuals. Under this assumption, we find that successful infection spread can hinge upon high-dose hot zone transmission, yet the majority of infections are predicted to occur in the community at large with mild disease. In this regime, residual hot zone transmission can account for continued virus spread during community lockdowns, and the suppression of hot zones after community interventions are relaxed can cause a prolonged lack of infection resurgence following the reopening of society. This gives rise to the notion that targeted interventions specifically reducing virus transmission in the hot zones have the potential to suppress overall infection spread, including in the community at large. Epidemiological trends in the USA and Europe are interpreted in light of this model.

Patterns of the COVID-19 pandemic spread around the world: exponential versus power laws.

We have analysed the COVID-19 epidemic data of more than 174 countries (excluding China) in the period between 22 January and 28 March 2020. We found that some countries (such as the USA, the UK and Canada) follow an exponential epidemic growth, while others (like Italy and several other European countries) show a power law like growth. Regardless of the best fitting law, many countries can be shown to follow a common trajectory that is similar to Italy (the epicentre at the time of analysis), but with varying degrees of delay. We found that countries with 'younger' epidemics, i.e. countries where the epidemic started more recently, tend to exhibit more exponential like behaviour, while countries that were closer behind Italy tend to follow a power law growth. We hypothesize that there is a universal growth pattern of this infection that starts off as exponential and subsequently becomes more power law like. Although it cannot be excluded that this growth pattern is a consequence of social distancing measures, an alternative explanation is that it is an intrinsic epidemic growth law, dictated by a spatially distributed community structure, where the growth in individual highly mixed communities is exponential but the longer term, local geographical spread (in the absence of global mixing) results in a power law. This is supported by computer simulations of a metapopulation model that gives rise to predictions about the growth dynamics that are consistent with correlations found in the epidemiological data. Therefore, seeing a deviation from straight exponential growth may be a natural progression of the epidemic in each country. On the practical side, this indicates that (i) even in the absence of strict social distancing interventions, exponential growth is not an accurate predictor of longer term infection spread, and (ii) a deviation from exponential spread and a reduction of estimated doubling times do not necessarily indicate successful interventions, which are instead indicated by a transition to a reduced power or by a deviation from power law behaviour.